Rates · CONTRACT VERSION 1

Will the UK 10-year gilt par yield be at least 4.50% at the end of 2026?

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RESOLUTION CONTRACT

Authoritative source: Bank of England Database — IUDMNPY 10-year nominal par yield ↗
Exact test: Resolve YES if the Bank of England daily series IUDMNPY, “Yield from British Government Securities, 10 year Nominal Par Yield”, is 4.50% or higher for the final available observation dated in calendar year 2026. If 31 December 2026 has no observation, use the latest BoE observation with a date before 1 January 2027. Resolve NO if that value is below 4.50%.
Deadline: 15 January 2027 at 23:59
Revisions: Use the Bank of England database value available when resolving after the final 2026 observation is published. Ignore later database backfills or methodology changes unless the Bank labels the original observation as erroneous before closes_at.
Baseline: August 2026 rates-market neutral threshold: 4.50% threshold on BoE IUDMNPY daily 10-year nominal par yield.

◇ This contract cannot change after the first submission.

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